After six rounds of league games, the race to secure a spot in the semi-finals and the Champions Trophy 2025 is heating up. Currently, the top four teams have been holding their positions for at least a week, but nothing is set in stone. To ensure qualification, teams need at least 14 points, while anything under eight points won’t be enough. With two-thirds of the league phase remaining, the competition is intense.
Here’s the latest update after the 30th match of the tournament, which featured Afghanistan and Sri Lanka:
Points Table
| TEAM | MATCHES | WON | LOST | POINTS | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 1.405 |
| South Africa | 6 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2.032 |
| New Zealand | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1.232 |
| Australia | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0.97 |
| Afghanistan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -0.718 |
| Sri Lanka | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -0.275 |
| Pakistan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -0.387 |
| Netherlands | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1.277 |
| Bangladesh | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1.338 |
| England | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1.652 |
India Remaining opponents: Sri Lanka, South Africa, Netherlands India is the only unbeaten side in the tournament, and they are in an excellent position to secure a semi-final berth. A win will guarantee their spot, and they can still advance with three defeats, provided Afghanistan doesn’t win. The only way they might miss out is if five teams reach 12 points or more, and India falls behind on Net Run Rate.
South Africa Remaining opponents: New Zealand, India, Afghanistan Like India, South Africa is comfortably in second place with ten points from five wins out of six matches. Two more wins should secure their spot. They also have a strong NRR of +2.032, making them well-placed in tied scenarios. The worst-case scenario for South Africa is losing all three matches and seeing Australia, New Zealand, and Afghanistan exceed 10 points.
Australia and New Zealand Remaining opponents (Australia): England, Afghanistan, Bangladesh Remaining opponents (New Zealand): South Africa, Pakistan, Sri Lanka Australia and New Zealand have taken different paths in the tournament. Two wins out of their last three matches should suffice for both teams, especially given their superior NRR compared to the teams below them. Australia has relatively easier fixtures with two matches against bottom-dwellers, England and Bangladesh.
Afghanistan Remaining opponents: Netherlands, Australia, South Africa Afghanistan’s win against Sri Lanka has boosted their chances, and they are the best-placed team among those outside the top four. The simplest path for them is to win all remaining games and hope that at least one of South Africa, Australia, or New Zealand finishes below them. Afghanistan’s NRR is a challenge, so they must aim for a clear points advantage.
Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Netherlands Remaining opponents (Sri Lanka): India, Bangladesh, New Zealand Remaining opponents (Pakistan): Bangladesh, New Zealand, England Remaining opponents (Netherlands): Afghanistan, England, India All three teams currently sit on four points and have an outside chance of reaching ten points. However, they’ll need favorable results from other matches, especially if Australia and New Zealand continue winning.
Bangladesh and England Remaining opponents (Bangladesh): Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia Remaining opponents (England): Australia, Netherlands, Pakistan Bangladesh and England have struggled, with just one win each in six outings. Their chances are slim, but mathematically, they can still qualify. They need to win all their remaining matches and rely on other teams’ results, all while significantly improving their NRR.
The competition is intense, and every match counts as teams vie for a place in the semi-finals and the coveted Champions Trophy 2025.
Disclaimer: The prediction is based on the understanding, analysis, and instinct of the author. While making your prediction, consider the points mentioned, and make your own decision.
